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Arizona 2004:
The Doctor's Report
 Last fall the Doctor allegorized these golfers with
western heroes and outlaws, and the actors who portrayed them.
In fact, John Wayne (Nelson) won as the Doctor suggested
he should. It is
tempting to again compare these men with other folk heroes,
television or movies heroes, Shakespearian characters, cartoon
or comic figures, warriors or others on search of a magnificent
quest (The Lord of the Rings the most recent example) or even
the Twelve Disciples. The Doctor has avoided this temptation due
to the fact that there is now a reliable statistical database for
our review. The
last three trips scores / handicaps and resulting trends show glaring inequities
that must be brought to the participants’ attention.
Twelve Angry Men is the
title of a movie where a jury is asked to decide the fate of an
accused murderer. However,
in that case the murderer was not one of the twelve.
In deciding handicaps for the sweater trips, twelve men
try to find fair handicaps for both themselves and others by relying upon the honesty and integrity of each man.
Bagger Vance noted that Golf is the most noble of games
where an individual calls a penalty upon himself, which therein raises
the character of all participants.
While these handicaps may have a financial impact via the
Calcutta and side games, the
quest for the sweater is the primary goal.
Like the BCS there have been ongoing refinements, yet the
goal remains the same: that each individual, based on their
abilities, will have an equal chance to wear the yellow garment
similar to Lance Armstrong’s proof that he is number one at
the end of the Tour.
Unfortunately the scores for these events have only been
kept and tabulated since the current sweater holder joined the
quest. While prior
accomplishments have become the source of legends; sadly the
sweater only reflects the winner of each trip. The Doctor, who
heard tales of these trips long before becoming a participant,
was amazed at how many repeat winners there were and how an
individual could win three or more sweaters. Since
each individual voted
what they felt were fair strokes, it appeared that the only
explanation could be that the participants tended to disregard
the bad scores and focus on everyone’s good scores; similar to
the system for handicaps in golf throwing out the ten worst
scores and keeping the ten best.
It appeared that greater weight was given to more recent
scores, or those shot in money games; factors that might not be
used in the computers but were considered by the human voters;
again similar to the polls and the BCS
The Doctor ‘s hypothesized that these factors accounted
for the reluctance of some to accept GHIN handicaps, and to
rationalize that giving an individual more strokes was enabling
the golfer. Apparently
the handicappers were not only penalizing the chokers; but in
most instances penalizing the inconsistent scorers.
Using the data compiled by John Nelson, the Doctor found
that unconsciously the group had been voting an excessive
handicap
to the lowest individual by not voting a sufficient number of
strokes to all above him. This
regression to the mean resulted in a statistical advantage of
from more than one stroke per round in every case to nearly
three strokes per round in some cases.
Even when the reduction for rookies was considered
- the
disparity remained. Ward
Prine’s performance for the last three trips was, on average,
for each round over a stroke closer to his handicap than any
other golfer.
Further analysis showed that Prine’s overall total for
the three rounds was significantly closer to par when compared
to his handicap than to any other golfer. Although Prine has won
only one of the last three tournaments, this discrepancy applied even
to the other two winners and the two who tied.
It is no wonder that despite recent efforts to give
partial strokes; Prine continues to win and never to play in the
drone group the last day. The
fact that he had earlier won four sweaters would suggest that
this advantage in handicapping has lasted for the history of the
sweater. Clearly his consistency, his ability to shoot lower
scores, and the limited range of his scores has resulted in while
unintentional; favorable handicaps for Prine.
The
following chart
reflects the discrepancies described above:
|
GOLFER |
Ave.
Score |
Difference |
| Ward |
75.39 |
3.15 |
| Kip |
76.78 |
4.18 |
| Jeff |
Only
one trip did finish second in
Phoenix
two years ago |
| Tom |
81.21 |
4.18 |
| Doctor |
81.81 |
4.37 |
| Ken |
83.75 |
4.60 |
| Kris |
86.12 |
4.48 |
| Kirk |
86.24 |
5.93 |
| John |
91.93 |
4.54 |
| Chris |
93.09 |
6.00 |
| Walt |
94.76 |
Two
rounds no
Phoenix
score |
| Pete |
97.91 |
5.03 |
Overall, Ward beats Kip
by 1.39 per round, Jeff by 1.84 in
Arizona
, Tom by 5.82, Doc by 6.42; Ken by 8.36; Kris by 10.73: Kirk by
10.85; John by 16.54; Chris by 17.7; Walt by 19.37 in
Minnesota
; and Pete by 22.62. It
is reasonable to conclude that Ward will do better on courses
that no one has played, and on those courses with which he is
more familiar than the other participants.
The Doctor has concluded that the benefit of the doubt
should go to those who have not won the sweater, rather than the
five-time winner and therefore makes the following
recommendations. If
you cannot vote one half strokes increments the handicaps should
be rounded up to the higher stroke.
He won last time in Phoenix
shooting an average of nearly par. He knows the courses.
His recent survey of courses in Arizona
and those scores means he is the favorite. The numbers don’t lie; in a horse race he couldn’t
carry enough weight. Only
the fact he had to play four rounds with Hughes in Minnesota
kept him out of the money. He
has won one sweater playing great golf in Arizona; the others may have been gifts from the handicappers. He is focused. He
is a zero. Prine
will refer to his bad rounds a 79 or even a score occasionally
in the 80’s. What he wants everyone to fail to notice is the
difference between his bad rounds and the other golfers.
Everyone knows that the GHIN only counts the low ten out of
twenty, Prine wants you to only count his high ten of twenty. On the scouting trip to Phoenix,
he shot a score in the high seventies & low eighties; yet he
will ask you to ignore the fact that Madsen and Nelson BOTH shot
a scores in the mid 90's as well as one score of 100.
In the desert the Doctor cannot stay with him because of length, and Jeff because of accuracy.
Only Kip can compete day in/day out.
Ward is a ZERO
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Kip won in Minnesota
as a two in 02, but the numbers show Ward averages at least 1.40
strokes better than him each round. Kip is engaged, and has a
sore knee. He hits
it straight but thinks that everyone else is getting to many
strokes. He is right
about Ward. Kip can
still play the best; but his concentration needs to be sharp. He is seldom in the drone group, but can be seriously
damaged by who he is playing with, or their lack of a game. He
probably needs to give Jeff strokes,
but not a whole stroke a round.
If it were only for the sweater - he would be a one.
Depending upon whether the Thursday round counts, this could be
the difference. Kip is a 1.5
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He hits it far but he
has bad habits in Arizona, rooming with Fritz and Walt won’t help.
He has never won the
sweater. He deserves
a chance. A great
competitor, he needs to keep it on the planet.
New courses may be a blessing or curse; he may need to
dial it down. He
lost to Ward by eleven net last year for six rounds, he should
be at least a two and maybe a little more depending on what
Kippy gets. It will
be interesting to see how his game travels now that he is a
married man. He
is a new homeowner which means he may buy an even bigger cactus. Jeff
is a 2.
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Tom has never won a
sweater. He did not
finish in the money with six in
Minnesota.
He will be worse
in Arizona. The last three
trips Tom has averaged 5.8 more than Ward but that includes his
beating WARD in Sioux City. Last time in
Arizona, Ward beat him by 17 net and Tom was a six. Tom should be a Seven to make up for the years he
received far less. He
will have at least two rounds in the low to mid eighties. Tom
is a 6.5 to 7.
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Old age has made Hughes
more erratic and unable to forget bad shots.
He has shot in the 90’s twice this fall for the first
time in 15 years. He
records all his rounds and his GHIN would entitle him to seven
or eight from Ward depending on the course.
In Minnesota,
despite beating Ward scratch in Sioux City ; Ward averaged more than seven strokes better than the Doctor.
His average score difference with Ward is more than 6.4 per
round. However; Ward has historically beaten him by more than 1.2
strokes per round compared to handicaps. Tom is at a minimum
a half a stroke better and may be a
stroke better. Perhaps
the fact that the Doctor does not desire to purchase any part of
himself in the Calcutta would suggest that he has a better
recognition of his game’s and character weaknesses than the
other eleven. The
Doctor is a Nine at Prairie Dunes; however, each of the other
eleven has played too many rounds with the Doctor to be
comfortable giving him his due. Poulos thinks Prine should give
Hughes ten and Kris play him even just so the two of them would
know how it feels for the rest of us in the games they
negotiate.
Prine beat the Doctor by seven
the last day in Arizona 03 to win. Prine has improved - Hughes
is worse;
Seven and one Half is
right.
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KEN has a three stroke
lower GHIN than the Doctor and has beaten the Doctor two
straight years scratch in Minnesota. However
- he was in
the drone group in
Arizona. His average score
is 8.4 worse than Ward’s and he averages 1.5 strokes worse in
net score than Prine. His
last three Rounds in Minnesota
showed he can still play. If he dials it down - he could win with a
four. No one
finishes in the money as frequently as KEN.
His putting has improved. At one stroke difference the
advantage might go to DOC but at two it is clearly with KEN.
Doc is not starting him at eight only because of Ken’s
hospitality in October. If
Ken wants a side game with Doc after the beating he put on him in Minnesota,
he will have to play even or at most get one. With four a side he can compete with Ward.
Ken is an 8.5 to 9.
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Will not play.
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Will not play.
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A former multiple
sweater winner; Kirk has shot poorly in Arizona
for two years because of personal issues; which are now behind
him. His 74’s and
75’s are evidence of his ability now that he can harness his
strength. Although
his average score has been worse than his brother’s the last
three times; Kris always grinds, while Kirk has been playing
below his potential. Kirk
should get one a side from the Doctor and maybe one from KEN and
probably needs to give his brother anywhere from a stroke to a
stroke and one half. Kirk
may be lead astray in Arizona,
but he has the potential to beat everyone except WARD, JEFF and
KIP scratch. He should not get 5 and 5 from Prine, but may shoot
a bad round. Kirk and Tinley are the only players who deserve less than their statistical difference with
Ward; Fritz, due primarily to his fine performance in Arizona
last year, where he shot within four strokes gross of Ken and beat John
Nelson by 42 strokes, an average of seven a round, and beat Kris
by nine, which is a stroke and a half per round.
The big concern is if he gets on a plane to go to Vegas
on Friday night, without the Doctor to come along to protect him
from injury; he may not be able to play on Saturday. He is straight of the tee, which helps in the desert.
Putting him with Jeff and Walt could be just the catalyst he
needs. Kirk is a 9.5 to 10.
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Over the last three
trips the difference between Ward and Kris is an average of 10.7
strokes per round. He
did win two years ago in Arizona; and is a grinder. However
he has since then turned forty; and for the first time in his
life did not have control of a situation; which was even more
shocking in Oklahoma
than the Doctor being speechless. Kris is comfortable playing with all eleven other
opponents. No doubt he would like nothing more then, after his
October surprise, to beat all of the individuals who set him up. If he gets less than ten, he will no doubt be PERSONALLY
OFFENDED BY THE IMPLICATION. He has recently gone on a
scouting expedition of courses with the current sweater holder,
Reilly, and the five-time winner. He probably should not get any more
than the one to one and one half difference with Kirk. Ken
should not have to give him more than one a side, and four is the
maximum he should get from the Doctor.
He is the one golfer concerned with the candidacy of
Howard Dean; if Lobbying were prohibited - he would probably be an
eight. Madsen is
still reeling from his desert experience, where Nelson beat him
twice scratch. With three rounds above 95, perhaps Madsen’s
conscience got to him again, but he will be after John with a
vengeance. Kris is a 10.5 to 11.
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He won the sweater in
only his third attempt. He
won at Sixteen and one Half and has to go down. The statistics
show, however, that the average difference between he and Ward is
16.5. In Arizona
last year it was 19.5 per round.
He needs somewhere from four to six from Kris and eight
from the Doctor. He
isn’t as good as Tinley, but has beaten him scratch two out of
three times, and tied him the other. In
Minnesota,
he beat everyone but Pete by over a stroke a round net. He beat
Prine by a total of 17 strokes net.
While the desert and distance will be a disadvantage; he
is the defending champion.
His marvelous efforts in the scheduling the surprise
party in October, combined with his efforts at keeping
statistics and the website keep the Doctor from reducing him
more. Only Kris and Kip hold these trips in more reverence, and
he will be a proud champion. The sweater will not come off his
shoulders without a fight. Rumor has it on the scouting trip he
shot one round in the mid-eighties and had a nine in the
thirties. He may be punished for that
performance. John is a 15.5 to 16.
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While John makes the
most out of his ability, Chris has failed to achieve his
potential in the past. However,
the New Year offers Chris the opportunity to have the Sweater
remain in Prepster’s hands. Chris has had to carry the Doctor
and other teammates this year. While his average score is over eighteen worse than Ward
he has repeatedly been burdened with low
handicaps. When given a close to fair handicap in Minnesota
he finished in fourth position, only
because of a late charge by Ken that nipped him by one. Chris has better length than one would expect and has
seemed to cure the duck hooks and shanks. He has had the misfortune in the past to draw bad
pairings and partners, and the presence of a side game is as
important an aspect to his game as Madsen’s. His biting satire
and black humor are both appreciated on the course and around
the hot tub. Although
he has averaged nearly 18 strokes a round worse than Ward, some
of this has been due to strange health calamities, which have
struck him in both Arizona
and Minnesota. He did beat Ward
by nine strokes net in Minnesota, and therefore the Doctor believes that he should be somewhere
between a sixteen and one half to a seventeen. This means he will be getting five or six from Kris,
which is fair. Chris is 16.5 to 17.
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Walter is the third
oldest man on the trip and has never won a sweater. He has
skipped the last two trips to Arizona
because, as he says, why pay that kind of money to shoot the
miserable golf that I do. In
Minnesota, Walter has averaged over 19 strokes worse than WARD. He is
unlikely to do as well in Arizona. Walter has been
penalized for having ability, which he does not use. He makes
Tinley look like an optimist on the course. The Doctor has previously stated there is no amount of
strokes that will let him win. The Wally Rule adopted in Minnesota
reflects the fact that people will not bet on a bad bet. Rather than embarrass him because he can’t get any
buyers, the Doctor suggests that giving him the difference
between his average and Ward will level the playing field and
give him a chance at the sweater, Nineteen and one half to
Twenty is fair. In
stroke play, he needs at least this many. Walter
is a 19.5 to 20.
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Will not play.
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Pete tied for first in
Minnesota. However Arizona
is far more difficult. He
averages 22 and one half more strokes a round than Ward.
He has never won a sweater. He has traditionally received nearly a stroke and one
half less per round than he deserves. If he gets twenty-three and average 95, it would take
even par to beat him but his average is 97. Last year in Arizona,
Ward beat him by 155 strokes - that is over 25 per round.
Pete lost the sweater, but Suzy got the money. This would give Pete something to show for it.
As generous as he is in
Minnesota; we should give him a fair chance at the sweater; even if this
is ten more strokes a round than his GHIN handicap.
Peter
is a 22.5 to 23.
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While this analysis is
an attempt to correct past inequities, and to favor the
non-winners, the reality is that WARD has to give more strokes. He remains the favorite. The battle in
Minnesota
was between three high handicapers and a middle handicap, only
because very bad weather brought the lower handicapers closer to the
field. The Doctor
assumes that this information will allow everyone a chance at
the prize and will certainly level the playing field.
John Nelson may need
fewer strokes; or he may need more, but that will be up to those who played with him
recently.
Further - The Doctor also believes that in calculating the daily
and eventual winner; that the actual handicaps to three decimals
should be used each day for awards. Side games can be
negotiated..
Since J.P. is not going,
the Doctor will agree to keep the monies, and do the daily
calculations, so long as Nelson assumes responsibility for
keeping all score cards after the results are tabulated.
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