Minnesota 2004: The Doctor's Report

The Doctor’s reports for the last two years have focused on the glaring inequity created by the failure of the brethren to award sufficient strokes to allow everyone to compete against Ward Prine the five time sweater winner. Unfortunately these arguments have fallen on deaf ears far to often. While it is true that Prine won only one of these four sweaters; he has finished in the money three of four times and if not for his collapse at Whispering Creek where he was beaten soundly scratch by both the Pro and the Doctor he would have been in the money all four events. The good news is the playing field has begun to become more level for the high handicaps; but everyone is still running up hill against Prine and their own inflated sense of their abilities.

Fortunately John Nelson’s efforts to compiles statistics allows for a scientific analysis of the group over the last twenty-three rounds (two nine holes count as one round). The Doctor has decided to make his Ph.D. of some value to the golfing nomads and this year has attempted to identify facts which cannot be disputed on the first tee or when voting handicaps. In addition to these objective analysis the Doctor along with his PA, G String, have analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of each golfers’ game as well as external factors that may account for sub par or Herculean performance on these trips.

These Categories include current performance; overall tournament play, Minnesota tendencies; past handicap inequities as well as the subjective analysis. Numbers have been provide both for gross results and as compared to Mr. Prine. After the explanation and scores in each category are outlined the Doctor’s analysis of the correct handicap for each golfer will be given.

The Doctor would be remiss to not at the onset complement Mr. Nelson on his statistics and his player profiles. However; unlike Mr. Nelson, the Doctor believes that the truth lies in the scores shot, no one asks how or why; but how many. It is clear to the Doctor that while it is admirable that many of these individuals have a higher opinion of their own game and others than the facts would support. Conceit, hubris, proud handicaps and the mistaken belief that they have to play their best and Prine his worst to be competitive has resulted in many instances Prine being given the sweater instead of his winning it. Prine’s excellent performance in Arizona being the rare exception. The numbers are there. Reach your own conclusion whether you want this to be a competition or a charity event.

CURRENT SCORES- GHIN

What are player’s recent scores, how is he playing now? Scores of two years ago have less validity if they do not compare with current performance. The USGA has established the GHIN system to provide a handicap based on most recent scores.  Thee are however a number of criticisms, while it does consider the course rating and slope; only the low ten of the most recent twenty are considered. The system also requires golfers to make equitable stroke adjustments that means for this group of golfers they cannot count worse than a double bogey. While this may be fair in match play; it seriously penalizes the erratic golfer in stroke play. While the Ghin is a good predictor for one round, a six round tournament would statistically include at least two rounds which being in the worst ten would not be considered in the GHIN

The Ghin also has a weakness based on the frequency of play. A player who plays four times a week; will have a score included in his Ghin for only two to three reporting periods. This means a score will go out in a month or month or six weeks.  A player who plays only twice a week may show this score for the entire summer, And a player who plays less than once a week may have scores from the previous year still figuring in his handicap 18 months later, Fortunately this dedicated band of golfers play frequently, but many in events that do not allow for a score to be turned in to a Ghin number.

As is obvious other factors may also influence the score that is posted, rolling the ball; mulligans, conceded lengthy putts, not reteeing for lost balls; loose interpretations as to where balls enter the hazard. These may all lead to proud handicaps where scores are

posted as better than they really were. Or would be in a tournament scoring where all putts are holed out.

Mr. Nelson also refers to those scores which are shot for social purposes, where there is no gambling or when golfers are trying swing changes on the course.  Granted some players can not swing under pressure or make a five foot putt but in most instance this results in a handicap, which is too low not to high. The USGA Rules committee recognizes that there are golfers who do excel in competition and Rule 10.3 provides for handicap revision in the event that tournament scores are significantly lower than the Ghin.   In this group of golfers Kip, Ward and the Doctor play in the most tournaments, where medal scores are recorded.  The Doctor’s two low tournament scores in the past year were a Ghin of 4.9.  Under the USGA rules if his Ghin exceed 8.8 it would be adjusted downward.  Since it is 7.4 no adjustment is made.  None of the other brethren would appear to be affected by this rule except Ward who is a Zero, so the Maximum the Doctor would be entitled to is a 10 ten handicap on this trip less Ward’s two for an 8 maximum.

Because of Ghin’s shortcomings the Doctor has completed a more complete analysis of the twenty most recent scores of each golfer who has a Ghin handicap. These include not only the Ghin, but also the entire twenty scores and the high ten of the twenty.  Each result is then shown as a stroke handicap for the tournament based upon the course rating of 125, which represents the Ghin for the courses played in the tournament, To assist the reader, both the gross handicap is show as well as the net handicap reducing Ward to a Zero.  The handicaps for Iowa golfers are effective September 3, 2004, for Nelson, Tinley, Critter, and the Colonel they are effective 8/26/04. Only Potvin and Crowl do not have a Ghin index.

Current  Ghin Handicap Analysis

The analysis of the recent Ghin scores for the dozen who have handicaps reflects the problems inherent in the system.  Ken and Pete still have scores being counted from June of 03.  Doug Walt and Scott all use scores from last year. Tinley has 12 scores only four of which count.  While Kip’s score begin in late March he has only five scores since May three of which have an index less than 1.0

Average scores are of little value since the golfers play different courses with different slopes and course ratings. They may be more relevant for those who play primarily Dodge and Bent Tree. Tinley’s scoring average is nearly six less than John’s because of his playing at Field Club.

Two factors do appear to be significant. The range between high and low scores may indicate consistency.  Hughes is the low with 9 while Walt has a 31 stroke difference between his best and worse round A second factor is the low ten/ high ten comparison in the index.  The difference reflected here is a measure of not one bad round but how the ten worst compare with the ten best.

Finally frequency of play appears to relate to consistency as one would expect.  Hughes had 20 scores within 30 days while Prine and Kris had 30 in 45 days and John and Kirk within 75 days.  There ranges reflected the least volatility in scores, no doubt in part to both good and bad rounds not staying in the index for months on end or even years.

Tournament Results

Nearly everyone agrees that past performance in the tournament is the best gauge of performance; no one is sluffing off and the strengths and weakness of everyone’s game including their competitive psyche are shown by the scores they shoot. Only two scores appear to be aberrations. Prine’s 89 at Whispering Creek which was 6 higher than the following 83 he shot at Perham and which was 4 higher than any other round; for a ten difference and Walt’s 117 at Trilogy which may be a record and was nine higher than the 108 shot the previous day at Ocottile which was 5 higher than any other score for 14 strokes higher. It should be noted both Ward’s and Walts’ high rounds were shot with the Doctor and Tom in at least two of the four foursomes Because of these anomalies; and the fact that Whispering Creek is not in this years tournament. Wards differences are reported both with (Ward) and with out (Ward2) the Whispering Creek score.  Again for each category the difference treating Ward as a Zero is given. The twenty eighteen hole scores do not include the worst score for each golfer.

Tournament Averages For the Last Four Trips

“There are two kinds of golf regular golf and tournament golf.”  This statement by Ben Hogan’s is equally true of the Yellow Sweater.  Following this logic nothing is a better predictor of tournament results than past performance.  While luck may have a role; as noted in this months Golf Digest, the smart money bets on the American’s to regain the Ryder Cup and just as surely Ward will be in contention on Saturday morning.

An examination of the last 333 holes played (the 18^th not counting after Ward made double) establishes conclusively that the field to a man has not been getting enough strokes from Prine. Whether it is due to the fact that he is a better athlete, in better physical condition, a stronger competitor, better able to handle his liquor (a feat matched only by the Colonel who is almost always in the money) or his ability to convince everyone they are playing better and he is at his worst when the handicaps are voted, one thing is sure;

The five-time sweater winner who has been in the money three of the last four times and consistently does better than anyone else, he has never played in the Drone group the final round.

In these four tournaments there have been twenty-one 18 hole round and 4 nine whole rounds recorded, for a total of 23 rounds. Rick has played only five rounds and Doug only the 10 and 1/2 in Minnesota Walt has played both trips in Minnesota and the last in Arizona, while Scott missed an entire year. The other ten have played all 23 rounds.

The previous chart demonstrates the scores recorded by everyone.  The total scores were divided by 23 for the tournament average. Because of Ward’s 89 at Whispering Creek his 22 round average without that score was also calculated. For each category the score immediately below the average in the difference between Ward’s 22   18 hole average and the rest. The third line is the difference including the Whispering Creek score.

Handicap discussions before voting often talk about the worst scores, however these statistics show that the overall averages, the average for twenty rounds and the semi quartiles were all within one stroke of each other for those golfers who had played all 23 rounds three rounds. Contrary to the beliefs held by nearly everyone, on the sweater trip the golfers who are more inconsistent than normal and whose ranges of scores dramatically increase by 9 or more are Ward  (12 to 21) Ken (10 to 20); Bill (9 to 19) and Doug (13 to 25). Most golfers have a change of from 2 to 5 strokes increase in range while John Nelson, Chris Tinley and Kip actually shoot more consistent scores on the trip than in Council Bluffs. The doctor suspects that this is because for the last three their lows go up and highs remain the same while for Bill, Ken Ward and Doug their lows remain nearly the same but their highs increase dramatically while the scores for the golfers may increase.  What is most clear is that the average scores for all golfers except Ward and Kip increase at least two to three strokes over their averages used for their Ghin’s.

Minnesota Records

While the overall averages are important, the Minnesota scores are the most crucial.  Minnesota golf represents the end of the golfing season. Everyone has been playing, there is no layoff. These are home courses for some golfers; and the cool weather favors some while severely handicapping others home court advantage is paramount. Ward regularly plays one of the courses in a tournament each year. In separating these scores the doctor again looks at averages, with both Ward’s Whispering Creek score included and excluded, as well as the range of scores.

Minnesota Tournament Scores

Of interest is the fact that the average score for the Minnesota trip is higher than the overall average for Ward, Doc, Kirk and Pete and nearly two higher for Ward when the Whispering Creek score is included. This may be due to the more difficult slopes and course ratings plus par 72 courses in Minnesota and Ward’s domination of the Raven on the Arizona trips. Another explanation is that the in Arizona these four individuals have tied for first in Arizona or led the last day.  Of significance is the fact that Kris and Scot haves been nearly ¾ of a stroke better while Ken has been nearly 1.9 strokes better. No wonder that Ken has finished in the money twice and that Kris once plus winning the sweater in 2001. The most telling statistic is the Kip’s average is only one stroke higher than Ward’s in Minnesota.

The Doctor would be remiss to ignore the nine hole performances in Minnesota, since a daily low is awarded for them. Ward is low with a 115 total for three rounds while Pete is high with a 153. Kris Madsen’s winning of both 9’s two years ago with a 39 and 40 suggest that he may be able to play 27 holes a day better than the rest of the group.

Minnesota Handicap Variances

Over the last two years in Minnesota, no one has shot close to their handicap. The winners were plus 13 and plus 18 for a total of 31 over handicap.  What is also clear is that some handicaps were unusually low, while some were closer to being correct. Had Ward shot his average of 75 at Whispering Creek his total of 37 would have him ½ stroke above his handicap for both tournaments. Since he starts at Zero this is significant.

At 51 he still has the fourth lowest total, which is tied with Tom. The three lowest totals are Ken at 44; Kris at 45 and Kip at 47 suggest strongly that the boys who have been playing the tour for ten years are far closer to being handicapped correctly in Minnesota than any newcomers. Of the initial eight only Doug and Fritz seem to be significantly off in handicaps. Due to the adjustments made last year, high handicappers like John, Chris and Pete all made significant improvements but are still nearly a stroke worse in handicapping results than Ward, Ken, Kris, and Tom. Walter and the Doctor’s handicaps are off nearly four strokes a round and Doug’s is off the charts. The chart below shows the handicaps given and the variance for each and compared to the wining scores. Both Scott and Rick’s single tournament difference has been doubled for comparison.

Two-Year Minnesota Results Based on Handicaps

This discrepancy can be seen most clearly by three examples. Bill and Tom have been voted the same handicaps although Tom has beaten him by twenty strokes, while Ken has been voted 2,35 more strokes than Bill while beating him outright both times. John and Tins have been voted nearly identical handicaps and shot nearly the same. Fritz has given Kris 0.7 strokes while being beaten by him by 1.4 strokes per round scratch.

This is not to suggest any of these individuals have been given to many strokes; obviously if Ward did not have his 89 even Kris and Tom and Ken and Kip would have lost ground.  The problem is that people know what these guys will shoot up North, but assume the others will shoot what they shoot in Council Bluffs. Remember Walter Hagen’s wisdom “You don’t have the game you played last year or last week You only have today’s game .It may be far from your best but its all you’ve got.  Harden your heart and make the best of it.”

The Doctors Conclusions

“Nobody asked how you looked just what you shot.”     Sam Snead

Now that the data has been sifted; the Doctor feels confident in suggesting that the following handicaps should be awarded to each player. The scores are what they are as they were recorded whether a player was tired, was sick, had bad luck, quit choked or blew up makes no difference.  The argument Ward played well has no validity; he always plays well compared to Walt and Doug.  The fact that Kris makes every putt under pressure isn’t news it would be news if he didn’t. Kip hitting every fairway and Tom looking like he shot 74 and scoring 82 are reality. Pete will curse at himself; Walter will question why he plays this game he hates and Tinley will experience misfortune so be it.

Everyone except Rick and Doug would still rather be golfing than doing anything else. Which probably explains why they are such pleasant company.

“Over the first three rounds you’re playing the course. In the final round if you are in contention you’re playing the man”.    Jack Nicklaus

Ward is the man.  He has the sweaters and the game to prove it. The turmoil of the last year is decreasing. He plays the most tournament golf, and loves D.L. His current Ghin handicap of two is consistent with the scores he has shot in the tournament, and in Minnesota. He is like a metrodome; and he excels under pressure He will not give the tournament away.  Because he is at Zero there is a natural tendency to reduce others because of their best rounds, Ward’s best rounds have him as a minus one or two. The statistics are clear he has to give more strokes to everyone, even Kip.