Phoenix 2005: The Doctor's Report

Its true the doctor has bowed out of the western adventure. When Bobby Jones was asked why he didn’t turn pro; he simply stated when its for money its not a game any more its work. Shakespeare’s Falstaff noted that he who loses and runs away lives to fight another day. This sabbatical allows me the opportunity to assess the current handicaps of the players and to avoid any question of personal gain or motive. With the statistical assistance provided by Mr. Nelson; and a review of the recent performances of the players; the doctor has concluded that the brethren may have over compensated for the high handicappers in the last three trips due to a prior history of favoring the low handicappers. The doctor believes that tournament performance is the best gauge of play, and that the more a person has finished in the money or won the sweater, the more likely it is that that person has been awarded generously more handicap strokes than those who have not won.

The significant effect of the Calcutta and the strange alliances, which are formed each year, suggest that it is not only Kris who spins his magic but also others who are equally to blame. The low handicaps that bring everyone down are no worse than those who believe that the Calcutta should increase the amount of strokes a person may receive. If the initial vote is fair then it is what it is; if not the inequity will be apparent, but just as the handicaps don’t change in the middle of a round once determined for the sweater they should remain the same. This is especially true when the first round of the sweater may be conducted before the Calcutta. If there is going to be a minimum buy in for each individual in the Calcutta then there is no need for a Calcutta, the individuals should have the right to buy themselves or if they decline then and only then should they be auctioned off. The view that a person should have to be in the Calcutta; diminishes the importance of the sweater and suggests that a participant will quit or not try once they are out of the sweater race. If it is the Holy Grail then shekels of gold should not cheapen it. The doctor realizes he is a purist but it is time the brethren consider what the sweater is supposed to represent. With those admonitions the Doctor suggest the following handicaps.

Ward is not a scratch golfer. He has really never won anything except some small tournament in Nebraska and a few local pro-ams and scrambles. Ward is a nice guy and
always competes but he is the best golfer in this sorry band of hackers.
His average is over 75 and his Ghin for these scores would be higher than what he has at Dodge. Ward does finish in the money and has five sweaters, but much of this is due to poor play under pressure by others not his performance. In Arizona his length makes him give more than in Minnesota, but the weather into January suggest there will not be as long a layoff as usual for the other players. He does play the Raven well and this must be factored in. Since I am not on the trip at least he will not be looking over his shoulder; and should contend.

Jeff should win this tournament every year and should give strokes to Ward. However he lacks that competitive instinct that distinguishes the great ball striker from the great scorer. For years we have excused his performance on his youth, his upcoming marriage, the house; job decisions and now the prospects of fatherhood. The time for excuses is over, the Doctor called him out on New Year’s Eve. With TWO regardless of the strokes given to TOM he should win the tournament. If not we can just continue to marvel at how far he hits the ball.

Unlike Ward Kip has won major tournaments, however he does not have a Ryan or a Jerkovich on his bag; and Kip is more worried about what others get than just going out and playing. Kip has not played as much but he does hit it in the fairway and can putt. However Kip believes that he is playing under a black cloud and he may be right now that Tinley has won a sweater. Kip is no longer as good as he was; and Jeff is better. Kip may be only a 2.5 but his average of 78 says he is a THREE. The Calcutta puts more pressure on Kip than the other low handicaps; because KIP knows he is the best and can’t figure out why he doesn’t win with strokes. He worries about the other player’s games too much and doesn’t shoot his own score.

It is at this point where the question is normally should it be TOM or the Doctor or the Colonel. However, it is clear that the next force on the sweater tour is the grass cutter form Dodge. Kevin has been making a mockery of the quota games at Dodge; shooting a 74 when getting five most recently. However, he has now found a comfort zone playing with G-string and the Doctor; and without their soothing presence; he may find some hitches in his swing. He knows his greens at Dodge; and many of his best birdies and pars will in Arizona instead hear the phrase re tee or I think it went in here. Since he is a rookie a five is probably low and a five and one half would not be outrageous; but any more would be unfair to TOM and Jeff.

His average is 82.5 He needs more than seven from Ward. If he shoots his average then he will be shooting a 72 and if that doesn’t win then he needs to get a lesson or two before Minnesota. The Doctor truly believes that Tom has been his own worse enemy insisting upon less than he deserves; I also feel that since there is no need to compare my handicap with Tom’s in Phoenix that there is no argument that he should be a seven and one half. He is playing in his eighteenth tournament. It is time as Mr. Nelson points out to level the playing field. Past sweater winners should not start at an advantage against TOM. It is the pros, whether Tom or Jeff’s tournament to lose.

Ken has distractions but he loves to play. With Kevin and Jeff he may be the shortest hitter of the three. He may not recover from the Oklahoma loss. He craves excitement. Although his average is higher than this it is primarily due to Arizona 2004. Madsen leaving him at the airport certainly accounts for his becoming the King drone. Ken can easily win at Nine but he has not played well recently. This year he will have to compete with Kevin for best golfer with a hangover. They may need two coolers if they are on the same cart. A NINE is fair to this sweater winner who until recently was always in the money.

 It would take a better handicapper than the doctor to distinguish between The Colonel and the Critter who are separated in the dictionary by only the letters P and Q which we are supposed to mind according to the old wives tales, Both play out of town and their games and handicaps are suspect to interpretation, However it is clear they are not quite as good as Tom or the Doctor and a little better than Kris and Fritz, In Arizona in 2003 Scott finished nine behind Ward and Whiteshoes and was a 7.5. Over six rounds he would have tied Ward had he been a NINE. Scott could be the wildcard in the deck on this trip..

Kirk should have won in Arizona in 2004. He was a 10.7 then and beat Prine by 7.5 strokes despite his last day play. He was a nine in Minnesota and could not beat his brother. In Arizona he will not have the security of the Doctor chauffeuring him wherever he wants to go, but as a past sweater winner, getting one from Ken and giving Kris only half a stroke should keep him competitive. He has not been lowered as much as Pete Poulos who won in Phoenix last year. He is getting two from TOM who he beat by eight strokes scratch last year.

Kris played great in Minnesota; he won three years ago in Arizona, he finishes in the money; and he has been shooting low rounds at 5900 yards all fall at Dodge, He can go low when he is on a mission, but when it counted he shot 86 at Wildflower to lose to Tinley. He still deserves a stroke from Ken and less from Kirk but in stroke play getting less than ten from Ward in a six round tournament would favor Ward two much. If the doctor were playing Kris would complain he needed more. If he is going to take the sweater from Tom or Jeff this year he has to earn it. This is one less than his 86 average but for once he needs to not have the game in his favor. This is close to his GHIN handicap.

He won the sweater at 15.2 by two and the Calcutta by nine. He needs to go down and his game has gotten better. However he needs at least four from Kirk and is still better than John. His handicaps have ranged from Nine to Sixteen on these trips and if he stays healthy he can contend at THIRTEEN and ONE Half. Because it is Arizona the group may want to consider voting him a fourteen

John was King Drone in Minnesota. He cannot play to the fourteen he was given there, He is not within four of Kris Madsen and everyone including Kris knows that. Tinley beat him in Minnesota by 51 strokes scratch. John has won a sweater in the past unless he gets over 16 again he will not win one in the future. He needs at least five from Kris in any stroke game. Last year in Arizona; Fritz beat him by 53 strokes scratch. Can’t he see a Trend? Fortunately John has his name on the Sweater. John has the Passion he just doesn’t have the game. However if he can’t average below ninety he doesn’t deserve to contend. These course do have par threes and short par fives, there are pars out there.
Fifteen is probably too few but more would be a gift.

Pete won at 21.8 and tied at 21.6 Because of this he was voted only 17.3 in Minnesota where he finished next to last over 30 strokes behind. He needs at least 18 from Jeff and Twenty from Ward. With the Doctor’s absence he will lose a roommate and a driver, plus someone to eat with while others are partying. Peter doesn’t care what he is given.
However, returning him to the twenties is the only way to make him competitive. Pete is there for the hot tub and not Eli’s He has his sweater; life is good for the Greek.

Sweater winners did not get the usual break in this analysis. The doctor believes that old habits are tough to break and Tom and Jeff have suffered because of the mistaken belief they are better because they get paid for this game. In fact the grass cutter may be better than either of them. If Tom has been playing this many times and hasn’t won he hasn’t had enough strokes.

In the low foursome Jeff and Ward are the ones to beat but don’t count out Kip or Kevin, The Doctor still bets on the thoroughbreds to finish first in this heat. Both Kip and Ward have won in the last three years.

Tom is the favorite in the second foursome, but Ken can shoot low the Critter finished third at 7.5 last time in Arizona and Kirk finished second at 10.7 but beat everyone but Pete soundly. No winners from this group sine we starred keeping statistics in 2002.

In the last foursome are four of the past six sweater winners. They all can compete with enough strokes but Madsen somehow does not seem to have his handicap go down no matter how well he plays. Frankly the Doctor does not see any of these men contending except perhaps Poulos who does not care. The doctor does not believe that Kris can stay with in fifteen strokes gross of Tom.

Its Tom’s tournament but watch out for the low four handicaps who can put some pressure on Tom on Monday where Potvin does not typically go low. The Doctor will miss this Dapper dozen but is confident that justice will triumph.