The Doctor’s Prognosis
Arizona 2006

The Doctor missed the 2005 Arizona trip and therefore has never seen Prine play poorly in the desert. He also has not played frequently with two of the rookies Scott Nielsen and Dave Berliner.  The current sweater holder Junior; has not been to Arizona for three years.  Billy Jacobson’s only prior trip to Arizona was when he and Tinley and the Doctor were all rookies, and Billy lost to the Doctor scratch.  Critter’s blow out win last year is only a statistical memoir to the doctor, while Fritz’s collapse two years ago is still clear.  Not to be forgotten is the fact that Kris did win in Arizona in 2002, but at a higher handicap (around 13).  With sixteen players this field it is even more difficult to assess, with only the lowest handicap for Ward and the highest for Pete being a certainty.  This year the rookie Dave’s calculations of the statistics will be relied upon along with overall scores and handicaps at the time the scores were shot.

It should be noted that with three rookies; it was originally thought it would be difficult to keep their plates full with the required array of menial tasks. The Doctor’s bad back will necessitate their assistance in carrying his luggage and clubs; resulting in three bag boys that even Augusta would envy. Thanks in advance for the help.

Ward Prine     0

Ward has won five sweaters.  One of which he shot nearly par golf to win.  His 18-hole average in Arizona is 74.3 and his 9-hole average 39.5   His overall average in Arizona is just below 75.  He does not shoot outrageous scores in Arizona, and his length is even more critical on these traditionally longer courses. Prine’s superb putting allows him to adapt better to the greens than the others and over six rounds his two worse scores are far closer to his average than any other golfer in the field.  Prine must give more strokes than he does in Minnesota to most of the golfers; and certainly more than he gives at Dodge to everyone. Assuming he will shoot his average, then everyone needs to be close to 74 to 74.5 net to compete, something the handicaps have traditionally not allowed. Prine will argue that everybody can go low, but he certainly cannot go as high as everyone else. Even if those arguments don’t convince you, the bottom line is if the game is on the line Prine can go low, his last two rounds at the Raven were even and under par. The assumption must be that Prine whose GHIN handicap is at most a two should have to shoot better than a 74 average to win a sixth sweater. Compared to Prine on the sweater trips, Duke gets poor seeds in the NCAA tournaments.  Ward is the gold standard at Zero.

Dave Berliner     2

The newest SilverStone Group representative, Dave was a PGA professional before joining the boys in Council Bluffs. Being a rookie, Dave will not receive the strokes he deserves but the fact that there will be someone who, like Kip, can contend at times with Ward may help to offset the Big Boy’s advantage.  Dave has already fallen prey to the Siren song from Dodge Park that handicaps don’t really mean anything and how can you ask for that many strokes in a match play game.  But Dave is a purist and knows Golf and will not be dissuaded from looking at the record and recognizing the advantage that Prine has on the field.  Dave may have played in Monday pro-ams in the past, but he has not seen sweater competition.  His statements that the pressure will not bother him sound like the boy whistling in the wind as he goes by the haunted house. The doctor believes that Dave will be more shocked and amazed at the deviations from the rules of golf allowed on the sweater trip; the fifteen club rule, the reading of other players putts, the one stroke penalty for the desert rule and over liberal drops often taken from those lies, both as to point of entry and closeness to the fairway.  Even if Dave can handle those factors the maximum score on holes may raise concern, but most certainly troublesome to him will be the pairings, where certain players always seem to have comfortable foursomes while others are often cursed to have to play with Pete and/or the Doctor frequently.  What will amaze him most is how the pairings change during the previous night.  If he can keep his focus and maintain his sobriety and sanity, then he will be a contender.

Dave gets from Ward two to three strokes regularly at Dodge. He probably does not need much adjustment in the desert, since he can hit it straight and putts well with a good short game. He has played desert golf, but the four nights with the sweater brethren will take its toll and he does not have the familiarity with everyone’s idiosyncrasies so that there may be a dent in his armor.  It is also unknown how he will play if he feels the handicaps overall are slanted; some are use to playing at a disadvantage off the first tee while others need to feel in their comfort zone.  Dave is probably as good as the other three Pros playing and therefore as a Rookie should gets the least. Next year he may be a three this year Dave is a Two.

Billy Jacobsen     2-1/2

NO one has suffered greater shame than Billy for the past four years.  He has often been thought as being worse than the Doctor, and certainly not as good as Jeff.  However, this was the fall when it turned.  He is long, consistent and putting well.  He played well through the summer, and this fall he put a defeat on the Doctor worse than any Doctor ever suffered at Dodge shooting one under and winning all the quota bets as well.  Unfortunately the next day he reverted into the Billy Jake we all had know shooting in the 80’s.   Whether the victory over the Doctor will carry on into the desert or will he will revert to where he was beaten by Pedro scratch for nine holes, or by the Doctor for the entire trip, remains uncertain, but he has been playing as a two against Ward all year at Dodge and with others at Shoreline.  While locally he may be better than a two against Prine at local courses, the Doctor thinks he needs more in the desert.  If Billy can average 77 he should contend.  Because he plays more and hits it on course more frequently than Jeff he should give Jeff at least a stroke a round.  BILLY is a Two and One Half.

Jeff Nielsen     3-1/2

This has been a rough year for Pickle.  He has had to put up with Kip as a roommate and not able to play much golf.  When he does find time to play, he can’t find the fairway.  He hasn’t been able to beat Billy Jake, head to head, and the only time he beats the Doctor is when they are partners and the Doctor has gone in the tank.  Ward has given him everywhere from no strokes to between three and four.   No one hits it longer but what does that mean for Pickle?? He has to go further out in the gunch to find the ball!  Pickle’s average of 78.6 per 18 in the desert is 4.3 strokes worse than Ward’s but for nine hole rounds, his average is a stroke better at 38.5. The Doctor, using advance math, has concluded that Pickle needs close to four from Ward.  Since his average handicap against Ward has been 2.2 it is not surprising he has never finished better than fourth and his average finish is 6^th in a twelve-man field.

 A good round for Jeff this year has been 77 to 78.  If he can average that in Arizona he needs at least Three and One half to be competitive against the field as well as the correct number against the Doctor, Tom and Billy Jake. Jeff gets Three and One-half from Ward.

Scott Madsen     5-1/2

Over the last four years Critter’s average finish in Arizona is second. Last year he won going away at 8.8 despite phoning in the last round.  He would have beaten Ward in 2003, had he not had the terrible 17 holes the second round the next to last day...Critter’s average score, even with those two rounds in Arizona for 18 holes, is 80.1, only 5.8 worse than Ward’s.  His Ghin handicap index average is 4.9 for a six.  Critter is the current Arizona Sweater winner and at 6.0 he finished in the middle of the field in Minnesota.  He has numerous yellow sweaters and he should have to average better than 80 to win another. Getting one a side from Jeff should make him competitive.  Critter should be pleased getting Five and One half.

Scott Nielsen     6

Another rookie. Scott has a strong bloodline going for him; however he too has never faced the pressure of the sweater before.   In quota games at Dodge, he has been given anywhere from four to seven, but he can go low and make birdies.  Scott is not as good as his cousin, but may be able to tone his game down more in Arizona.  The fact that he does not have a GHIN makes it difficult to trace his recent scores.  The Doctor would take Jeff and give one a side, or maybe two and one, and would give at least one to Scott against Critter.  However, it is normal to punish a rookie by at least one, and therefore six looks fair. This handicap the Doctor would reconsider based on additional input.  Six and one half or even Seven would be reasonable; however he is a rookie. 
Six is the number.

Mike Gallner     6-1/2

No one plays more good golf courses than Mike, nor does anyone have as smooth a swing.  Mike’s 6.9 GHIN would make him a 7 or 8 at most courses and would suggest that he should get 5 or 6 from Ward at most. But that would only tell part of the story.  While Mike seldom miss-hits a shot or misses a fairway, there are two things Mike hates, to play competitive golf or to have to hole out all putts.  Mike gives more putts than Santa Claus, with the mere hope that people will reciprocate in kind, and often do; mainly because at times it is to painful to watch.  Mike does not shoot often under par, but scores in the low to mid 80’s are common.  This is combined with the factor that he has a new driver, the second one in six months that he now hits straighter and longer.  Mike is such a gentleman and nice guys even his opponents root for him to make putts, unless of course the fly is on.   Mike is elated to be invited and he will enjoy himself immensely no matter how he plays or what handicap he is given. Mike has recently been playing at Lakeshore so he is even less prepared or the pressure of the sweater.  In addition, he is stuck with rooming with the Doctor so will be subject to endless analysis each night. 

The Doctor has played golf with Mike for over forty- five years and can honestly say he has no idea how Mike will play.  Although Mike always has a lower handicap the Doctor traditionally plays him even or gives him strokes; but that is to make Mike feel less pressure, that cannot be done here.  Mike will have to putt out.  While everyone would love to see Tommy have a four-stroke lead coming into the last nine on Monday, the Doctor fears if Mike had that kind of lead, he could seriously hurt himself.  The fact that

James Paul     The Champion     7

The current sweater holder, J.P. won the sweater despite making a disaster on the eighteenth hole the first day. Junior won at 8.6 in Minnesota.  He has not played in Arizona since 2001. He has purchased a new Sasquatch, and his putting has improved dramatically. He is still outrageously long, and will compete with Mike Gallner for the sweetest swing. Pairings could very well make the difference for J.P. who thru his years undercover has learned to fly beneath the radar. He must come down as the sweater holder, but not below the Seven he was in Minnesota in 2002. He still shot an average score of in Minnesota    He and Tom are close but he has two sweaters and Tom has none. Depending on what the field votes Tom, Junior could receive a seven and one half, since they are close, but he has to be at least one less than TOM. Junior for this trip may be an Eight but as the winner is reduced to a SEVEN where he will still be competitive.

The Doctor     8

Oh how times have changed; the Doctor has a mortgage, six bulging discs, choked down the stretch the last two days in Minnesota; lost to Billy Jacobsen by twelve strokes in one round in October; didn’t play in the Maxwell Cup, and quit Bent Tree.

Oh how some things never change; the Doctor with no game can still go low; and old memories die hard; and no one believes the Doctor’s x rays or MRI’s or his handicap or scores despite the evidence.

The Doctor is the second most consistent golfer averaging 82.3 in Arizona and 82.7 in Minnesota for 18 hole rounds.  Compared to Ward’s 74.3 this means that he averages for 18 holes in Arizona eight more strokes a round.  When you look at the nine hole rounds Ward averages 39.5 while the Doctor averages 46.  This is a thirteen stroke difference for that 18. which considered with the 18 hole average results in nearly a nine stroke average difference per eighteen holes in Arizona between Ward and the Doctor.  Since these figures include the year the Doctor was given a six and tied Ward that means Ward has played significantly better than the Doctor since that time. What a surprise.  Ward’s average Arizona finish is 5.3   The Doctor’s is sixth.  The Doctor’s last finish in Arizona was 10^th beating out the Colonel for the Drone by less than two strokes.  The Doctor’s Ghin Handicap is 8.1 giving him a 10 at P.D. and 8 at Dodge.

So what does this all mean, very little because you have to throw out the numbers when it comes to the Doctor. Obviously Ward is more than 8 better, but Ward will contend that is because the Doctor played bad, although Ward also was a drone in Arizona. The bottom line is that the only real handicap difference that should be considered is between Tom and the Doctor. Tom’s 18-hole average in Arizona is 0.9 worse than the Doctor, while Tom’s 9-hole average is three strokes better. That’s right when they are combined there is a difference of one-tenth a stroke between Tom and the Doctor.  The average handicaps voted in Arizona are Doctor 6.3 and Tom 6.2. The average finish in Arizona is Doctor sixth and Tom 7.6 The big difference is Tom has never finished better than fifth in Arizona in the last four years while Doctor lost a tie breaker to Ward for first.  Doctor should be an 8.5 based on the handicaps and Arizona scores, but until Tommy wins a sweater Doctor understands he should be voted a little less, His 18 hole average is 8 more than Ward and Eight would require him to shoot below an 83 average to contend.  Eight is close. Seven and one half is probably a little low.  Eight is the number for the Doctor. 

Tom Potvin     8-1/2

After over twenty tournaments the only person Tom can identify with for Bare shoulders is Lady Godiva.  He has not sniffed a sweater in the last four years in Arizona or Minnesota.  In the last three Arizona events he has averaged close to eighth place.  Tom’s average 18 hole score in Arizona is 83.2.  His average nine hole score is 43. Tom’s average score for 18 holes less his handicap in Arizona has been a 77 Net.  No wonder he doesn’t contend.  The argument has been made that he has played bad, but the numbers do not lie.  If you consider his nine hole scores in Arizona his average net score would be 79.8 for combined nine hole score this is worse than everyone except Pete, Tinley, Kris and the Doctor.  In fact Tom’s average 9 hole score ties Critter, is 4.5 worse than Jeff; 3.5 worse than Ward; 2.5 strokes worse than Fritz and only one half stroke better than the Colonel. The most amazing statistic is that John Nelson’s average nine hole score beats Tom by half a stroke scratch, despite receiving on average 4.5 more strokes per nine.  No wonder Tom finishes near the back of the pack. Tom’s average score justifies his receiving 8.9 strokes from Ward; however, Eight and One Half is fair to the field.  If he can’t beat the Doctor and Junior while they are giving him strokes; then something is wrong.  Tom gets Eight and One half.

Ken Shoemaker     10

In Minnesota the same day Ken was the Doctor’s partner and could barely break ninety Ken was two under par for nine.  He has GHIN handicap indexes at three courses of 6.7, 7.8 and an 8.2 at Prairie Dunes.  Ken and Kris are going out early to play at least one of the courses .His professional issues are over and last year at 9.2 in Arizona he finished fourth. While his overall average recently both in Arizona and Minnesota have been close to 86, his Calcutta average has been much better.  With sixteen players in the Calcutta this may get his attention.  Colonel is better than Fritz and Kris and it is difficult to vote him more than he had last year.

Ken may be the only person who has as many issues with his putter as Mike Gallner, compared to him Tom is Brad Faxon.  He should still be celebrating the Holiday bowl victory when he lands in Arizona. While he and The Doctor are only a tenth of a stroke different at Prairie Dunes, he still has the ability to shoot much higher scores and should be between a nine and ten.  Based on last year’s finish in Arizona contrasted with the fact he did so poorly in Minnesota when voted below a nine the Doctor thinks ten is correct.  He is the first person given more than his GHIN handicap by the Doctor but he will still have to improve his recent average to compete. Doctor giving him one a side is a fair game.  Ken is a Ten.

Kirk Madsen     10-1/2

If he gets in his comfort zone he wins. Fritz finished the year with the same Ghin handicap index as Ken; however their games are as different as night and day. Fritz can finesse his driver Ken has only one speed. Fritz averages 84.8 for 18 in Arizona, and 40.5 for nine holes for an average around 84,5. This is considerably lower than Ken and nearly four less than Kris. His Ghin handicap says he is a nine, but he can go south and if he is hitting it not straight it could be a problem. If Fritz putts well he is unbeatable, but different greens and different foursomes could confuse him. He should have won in Arizona in 2004 except for bad advice as to where he stood. He is a multiple winner and although his average in Arizona is better than Ken’s his game is fragile. His average handicap in Arizona is a 9.8 and his average finish is 5.3.  At Ten and one half.

He is within two tenths of what he was voted in 2004 when Pete stole the sweater due to Fritz late collapse. This will take his average net score in Arizona to below 74.  At this number Fritz could be an early favorite.  With one a side from Tom who knows where the line would be.  Fritz is a Ten and One half.

Kris Madsen     11

Kris won in Arizona in 2001 but has not played well there since he was a thirteen when he won but even if he were voted that his averages scores since hen would still place him over 75 net.  Kris has issues in Arizona and John knows it, which bothers Kris.

However, Kris has shot to many low scores to give full credence to his 88.1 average for 18 and 45.5 average for 9 holes.  He can putt, has his distance back and still is a good chipper.  One thing that has changed over the years is the pairings and the fact he does not get help reading putts from Ward. Kris may be so wrapped up in the personal battles with John he has lost focus on the Sweater. But he still competes which is why he has done so well in Minnesota where his scoring average is 3.6 less for 18 holes and three less for nine.  Something can be said for mommy fixing breakfast.  John is less than 3.5 strokes worse than him in Arizona for 18 holes and actually three better than him for nine hole rounds.

Last fall Kris came in second to J.P. at a Nine, and his average handicap in Arizona has been a Ten.  However his Ghin handicap index is only four tenths higher than the Doctors and three tenths higher than Ken’s and Fritz’s.  Like Ken he has to improve to compete but he is at least an eleven in Arizona.   Although the Doctor was beaten by Kris soundly giving 2.7 in Minnesota Kris needs at least three in the desert from the Doctor.  Because he was a nine in Minnesota it is difficult to increase him more than two. He should be pleased getting a stroke from Ken and half a stroke from Fritz.   Kris is an Eleven.

John H. Nelson     14-1/2

No statistical fact was more amazing to the Doctor than the fact that John had been voted nearly a stroke more in handicap in Arizona than the Tin Man.  Other than Critter, John has the best average finish of all the golfers in Arizona even better than Ward’s at 5.0.  John is 2.3 strokes better in Arizona than in Minnesota for 18 holes and 2.8 better for nine holes. While Tins and Kris play worse; John and Fritz play better in the heat.  Must be something in the water at SilverStone.  While John’s index at OCC is a 12.0 and Chris Tinley’s is 11.3 at Field Club in Phoenix there averages are reversed.  Most significantly, in Phoenix John is only 3.5 worse than Kris for 18 averaging 91.6, and actually 3 better for nine hole scores with an average of 42.5.  It is difficult to justify giving John more than three strokes of Kris in the desert where John has beaten Kris frequently scratch - albeit not for the entire tournament. However, John has not finished as well recently and four strokes is about right between he and Fritz in the desert. John will flat compete, and the Doctor cannot give him more than Six and One Half with less than a four stroke difference in indexes.  The real question is: can John beat the "other" Chris scratch when Tins has the higher handicap for a change.  With all John’s games, against the field - he is entitled to Fourteen and One half.

Chris Tinley     15-1/2

His handicap says he is a thirteen but in the desert he has tragedy at ever shoulder turn.  Chris’s average of 96.4 in Arizona would suggest that he should be a twenty-two, however his recent performances in Minnesota suggest that he can shoot much close to Ninety.  If he can average 90 he would shoot a 74.5 net and be right in the hunt.  The doctor believe that Chris has to good a game to believe he should shoot worse than bogey golf anywhere. His fourth place finish in Minnesota after winning it the year before at 15.2 convinces the doctor that more than Fifteen and One Half would be unfair to the field Chris like Ken and Kris have shot worse in the desert than reflected in the Doctor’s handicap strokes but their performance in Minnesota and Calcutta’s and in individual matches suggests that the high handicaps may be in part due to taking the maximum more often than should occur If Tins averages bogey golf he will be right in the hunt.  He is getting one stroke per 18 from Nelson.  Tinley this year is a Fifteen and one half.

Peter Poulos     21-1/2

Pete won in Arizona at 21.8 and came in second in Minnesota at 21.6 He finished 13^th in Minnesota at 16, twice 9^th in Arizona and Minnesota at 19.2.  Poulos needs over twenty to be competitive. His average Arizona Handicap is 20.7 and his average finish is 6.3 His average score for 18 in the desert is 96 for nine holes is 53. His GHIN average means nothing because he never reports his scores and some are two years old. His average score in Arizona is 96,6 for 18 and 51 for Nine   Twenty and one half strokes is close to his average and gives him a net higher than 75. One thing in his favor he doesn’t have to room with the Doctor. Like Kris and Ken and Chris if he wants to win he has to reduce the high scores on certain holes.  If Pete averages 95 he is right where he wants to be on Monday afternoon.   Although he only had 16 in Minnesota to contend the Greek gets Twenty and one half. 

Conclusion

As more scores are recorded the trend is more obvious, no one gets as many strokes as they need off Prine. This is due to the fact that Prine is a zero, and his consistency and lack of bad scores over time proves the old adage that the race doesn’t always go the fastest or the battle to the strongest, but that is the way the smart money bets.  There is a reason that Tiger gets odds against the field, because he daily is the best.  Nothing supports this more than the fact that Tom’s average less his handicap is more than two greater than Ward’s. These are sweater numbers, not throw away scores on meaningless holes. Every shot counts. While the Sweater brethren cannot reward mediocrity, they should also not punish golfers for their consistent performance whether good or bad, it is what they shoot.  By looking at a number between 74 and 75 as the winning score it is fair to Prine for his average and allows everyone to be handicapped to that number, while allowing some changes because of extremely high rounds or having to play in the drone group on Mondays. 

While it is clear some thrive in the desert and some in the Land of Lakes, recent improvements or decline must also be considered, and presumably reflected not only in the sweater race but also the handicaps that are posted. Only the Doctor and the Colonel have consistent scores in both Arizona and Minnesota, with the Colonel having identical 18 holes score averages and the Doctor’s four tenths of a stroke apart.  The benefit of the doubt should be given to non-sweater winners, and recent winners should be reduced.  Finally, while there has been an attempt to "level" the playing field, some individuals with poor performances in Arizona have scores that cannot be adjusted completely, and they are going to have to look elsewhere than the Doctor’s proposed handicaps for redemption.