THE DOCTOR’S REPORT MINNESOTA 2007

INTRODUCTION

The Doctor has now played in ten events, and while he is going to Minnesota will not be in the Phoenix field in 2008. Instead of literary comparisons this year the Doctor intends to reflect on his impressions that have evolved over these last six years. These comments reflect upon the players, the handicaps, the venues, the courses and the unique camaraderie that makes this tournament so special to so many. The following are the Doctor’s own impressions and reflections.

THE FIELD

An event that was once only a foursome first expanded to eight some and was a twelve-player group when the Doctor joined the tournament. . It has grown at times to more than four foursomes but will be a fourteen-man field in Minnesota. As the numbers have increased the logistics have become more difficult. Getting four tee times and switching partners for the second round during the thirty-six hole days is often difficult. This is particularly true in Arizona where there are less hours of sunlight. The significantly lower cost of the Minnesota trip as well as the time of year and access to the courses has contributed to an increase in the size of this field. This has also increased the burden on our genial hosts Roger and Shirley Madsen, whose home and cottages they open to the Yellow Sweater brethren. The use of the recreational vehicle for transport of all the players is no longer possible. This has resulted in SUV’s also needing to being driven. This breaks up some of the experience for those left to ride in the old folks car, and has resulted in changing the days when we return from Minnesota. This year all will return on Saturday from Thumper Pond. All of the golfers except Ken that encompass the field play together regularly at Dodge or in Council Bluffs or Omaha. While a few people have dropped out for the most part once you have become one of the brethren you are one for life. However this does create significant difficulty in the pairings as will be discussed below. Of most recent significance is the fact that children’s and spouse’s activities now often are the deciding factor in whether an individual can make the trip.

What truly has amazed the Doctor is the relationship among the players in the group and the lack of acrimony among the players. These men are loyal to each other, although listening to the comments a casual passerby would be suspect. What is clearest is that everyone has a very competitive instinct, and a fierce love of golf.

The original four men who started the event have always handled the selection of new invitees.

COURSES and VENUES

Minnesota in the fall and Arizona in the spring. This is the tradition. While other locations than Scottsdale have been discussed the ease of flights and consistent good weather, is an overriding factor. Although the courses have become outrageously expensive, and reasonable accommodations more costly despite efforts by recent brethren Dave Berliner with his connections out west to keep prices low. Arizona is a four times a more expensive trip than the fall trip North.

Suggestions have been to add a third event at Prairie Dunes where three of the Brethren currently belong and a fourth is on the waiting list. As children grow up and schedules become full, this may become a more realistic alternative, or the size of the group may eventually be reduced in both fall and spring.

Kris, Tom, Ward, John, Dave and Tins have consistently worked at getting the best rates at good courses. As the quality of courses has improved, and certain courses have been taken out of the rotation, it is more apparent, that the choice of courses has not been as big an influence on recent champions. While the available venues in the Minnesota are significantly less than in Arizona, new courses such as Whispering Creek, Oxbow, Thumper Pond, and other nearby courses have resulted in play at Detroit Lakes becoming less important in the determination of the champion, much to the regret of five time champion Ward Prine who stars at that venue, where he also plays in a top amateur tournament each year as a warm up for the Sweater.

HANDICAPS

Anyone who read the early Doctor reports is aware that the early handicaps were more a result of the art of persuasion and subterfuge than a realistic evaluation of how the handicaps were to be determined based either on recent performance or past Sweater performance. With the Doctor and John Nelson’s focus on the GHIN and past Sweater scoring averages and with reduction of handicaps for the winners; a gradual sea change began to occur. When Dave Berliner became involved the statistical analysis became a science. It is little wonder that Ward and Fritz who won more than half the first fifteen championship have won only one each over the past five years; Ward with superlative par golf and Fritz with what must be considered a favorable handicap granted in part due to an illness causing him to spend the previous Phoenix trip in the hospital.

Nearly everyone now has a GHIN. This year the low handicaps that vigorously objected to giving at least the difference in Ghin Handicaps or difference in average strokes in Sweater tournaments are now its strongest supporters encouraging the use of Ghin handicaps. They now want to focus on current performance and ignore history forgetting that all scores count in the sweater while only the lower half of the scores count in establishing a Ghin. The Doctor has for each player shown the most recent GHIN and probable handicaps for the courses.

This does not mean that the Doctor has discounted the comments from the low handicap golfers, that it seems unfair that if Tom’s handicap by the Ghin is only two higher than Jeff that Tom should receive six or more strokes in the Ghin. This is where history and common sense must prevail. No one would take Tom against Ward getting only three when he has not won a sweater averaging over six handicap strokes more than Ward the last two years this year the largest example of this disparity is Ken whose handicap at Ghin is five but who clearly need at test two more and at least one from Tom whose handicap is higher. The Doctor whose handicap always goes down before the fall sweater because of playing more at Lakeshore has watched his handicap on the Ghin drop nearly two strokes because of his play at lakeshore where seven of his ten scores for handicap purpose are used to calculated his Ghin. With two others from Prairie Dunes, and only one score where he plays with the Sweater Group at Dodge. No doubt the Doctor is out of his comfort zone when playing with these gentleman, the difficult question for the group is how to balance Tom’s and Ken’s Ghin’s with the Doctor’s who even with a sub par round and Lakeshore scores is still nearly two higher than Ken. This may account for the reason that Tom and Doctor have never won a sweater and Ken’s win was even before I started on the quest.

Overall the winners have been the ones who deserved to win. Granted there have been some exceptions. John and Pete were probably too high when they won, and Critter is elusive as to how he is playing. The most remarkable were two recent victors: Mike Gallner, who played out of character by enjoying the competition in part due to the Colonel introducing him to cranberry juice and Vodka, and the Critter, who went from Drone to Champion to Drone. By in large the handicaps have recently been so on point that two times there has been a tie and last fall it was decided by one tenth of a stroke.

There has been a regular discussion to allow each of the Brethren to set their own Handicaps, and the Doctor expects that would be valid except some would set their own handicaps too low. With the Calcutta, the Doctor believes the group needs to continue to vote the handicaps. A recent trend is to allow Brethren who are not going on the trip to still vote on the handicaps. In Arizona all sixteen golfers voted the same handicap on all ballots for the Doctor, for the first time except for Ward who has consistently been the base This does not mean that rookies are still not penalized and handicaps for recent Winners still continue to be reduced but the overall assessment appears to be remarkably Close.

GROUPINGS AND PAIRINGS AND ORDER OF PLAY

Now that the courses are chosen, and the length of the courses have been determined and voted to be. Not under 6200 or over 6600. Two factors appear to have an influence on how the players perform. The first is familiar groupings. There are traditional matches although this is a tournament the pairings frequently assign the matches as a matter of Course. Individuals who have three or four of these matches therefore play in what are comfortable matches. This is not a conscious attempt to get an advantage but does have a beneficial effect in those pairings. This becomes more apparent when more than eighteen holes are played in the same day and the parings are minimally shuffled. Often because of an uneven number of players fivesomes are necessary and some prefer fivesomes for the availability of more games while others prefer traditional foursomes. Unfortunately these matches are fluid although Tom has often scheduled all matches in advance for the four days, somehow they never seem to work out as listed with some people seldom playing with others while a few play numerous times with the same people whether by desire or accident.

The following are the Doctor’s initial handicaps subject to revision by up to one stroke based upon the September 14 2007 Ghin handicaps.

WARD
Zero   GHIN 9/13/07 2.9
Likely handicap 3

There is a trend to want to vote everyone a handicap. However the strokes being given the math says you have to decide who is the base. Ward is the base not because of five sweaters and not because he is the best athlete but because no one has ever been able to beat him consistently for over ten years, He played well in the tournament early this summer. He played well in Minnesota, and shot a two under round two weeks ago in the Metro. His golf is off a little this year, but it has not been his primary focus. Kip may be playing better but Prine has the home course advantage, along with Kip and Jeff he is a ZERO. His index would have him at a three but if he averages 75-76 he will be in the hunt.

KIP
Zero   Ghin 9/13/07 1.9
Likely handicap 2

Kip has kept his scores and recorded them all this year his handicap index would have him as a three and getting one from Ward, however, he has been playing better recently, and shooting more consistent scores. He still is the best in the fairway. The Doctor played with Kip at P.D. and it is clear that if Kip concentrates he is as good if not better than Ward. Kip did get to the semifinals in the Publinks the biggest tournament anyone of the Sweater brethren has won however bad pairings still bother Kip an he often worries about how others are doing instead of his own game, so the Doctor feels the two are even. Kip can average below 75 with ease.

JEFF
Zero   Ghin 9/13/07 2.9
Likely handicap 3

Jeff is the reigning sweater champion from Minnesota and won despite having to room with Kevin. The buddy system with these two individuals was somewhat defective last fall, but additional safeguards are planned for this year. Although last fall Jeff did receive strokes, from Ward his being the winner, his playing Ward and Kip even at Dodge, and his ability to play in the North are all reasons why Jeff, Kip and Ward should play even. Like Ward his Ghin is approximately three. Jeff unlike most can play in the later part of the day or the early morning.

He is the weakest of the base threesome but e did win the sweater last time in Minnesota;

TOM
SIX and ONE HALF  Ghin 9/13/07 4.9
Likely handicap 5

This is the first time that Tom has kept a GHIN and to no one but the Pro’s surprise his Ghin is considerably less than he thought it would be. It appears that in the past Tom was averaging the ten scores the Ghin throws out not the ten used to calculate. No doubt because of this, Tom thought he was playing worse than he was and it became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Tom used to play Ward, Jeff and Kip even, when the Doctor began playing Tom was getting five or less. Truly the brethren have tried to enable TOM by voting him handicaps up to 7 plus. Tom has always known he was better, most frequently demonstrating this by winning the Calcutta after a bad first round. Tom’s explanation has always been he scores better the more he plays. He has played more this year and also in Minnesota The Doctor feels that giving Tom his Ghin handicap is correct, it is a reduction from last year when Tom missed winning by a tenth, it reduces him because of his recent domination of Calcutta and reflects his better and more frequent play. Is it to high perhaps except for the fact that Tom despite all the prayers and well wishes has yet to win a sweater. Less than five might be fair against the lower three if all play well but against the entire field Tom needs six to six and one half. Tom will have to beat Kevin to win the Sweater

KEVIN
FIVE and ONE HALF  No Ghin due to lack of play

The hardest to handicap by his early performance in Arizona he promised great golf and numerous sweaters. Kevin has done a brilliant job keeping Dodge in shape despite the heat and rain this summer, but the work has prevented him from playing golf.

Kevin needs to get away. Last year teaming with Jeff as his buddy was his undoing. Kevin hits it further than Tom, but doesn’t play as much. At least one and perhaps more high scores are factored into his five, but the great job he and his crew have done at Dodge may have the Doctor generous. He won’t find the greens as smooth up North, and it is doubtful he will have a clear recollection of the courses and has not played Detroit Lakes, or the third nine at Perham; or Headwaters where lack of driving accuracy may be his downfall. Kevin has to give Tom a stroke a round. Pure and simple if Tom can beat Kevin he should win the sweater.

JUNIOR
SEVEN  Ghin 9/13/07 7
Likely handicap 7

Junior has the best swing on the trip, but doesn’t play as much as the rest of the group. Only he knows how many he needs from Tom who is the realistic measuring device against Junior’s game. He is not as good as the men below him and better than those above him. J.P. won two years ago in Minnesota at over 8 but has been significantly reduced in handicap in the last two events. He still hits it long and is immune to the gamesmanship of many of the players. Pairings may assist or hinder his quest for the Sweater. Placing him at the same as the Colonel who is playing well and less than two below the Madsen’s and the Doctor; appears fair but as always the Doctor will vote Junior what he asks for.

COLONEL
SEVEN  Ghin 9/07/07 5.1
Likely handicap 5

For the last five years the Colonel has consistently had a handicap lower than the Doctor, but I have either played him even or given him strokes, because of his failure to post all his scores, his friendly games in Oklahoma or his tendency to shoot himself out of the tournament with one bad round. Unfortunately the last two years in Minnesota the Doctor and Ken were partners when those rounds occurred. Ken can go low. In Florida Ken and the Doctor lost to Tom and Ward after Ken had butchered him all trip. Of late Ken has played better as my opponent than my partner, shooting lights out in Arizona, and most recently beating me scratch before the Charles Craig Classic at P.D. where he and Madsen came in third, behind Mr. Nelson and the Doctor. In that event and in our June trip to P.D., Doctor and Ken played even, however since that time Ken has dropped his handicap index by over three strokes shooting 77, 78, and 79, from the back tees at P.D. His current index is 5.7 that has him three less than the Doctor even with the Doctor playing his best at the Maxwell and an interclub. Based upon his handicap Ken should be a five at most against Ward and the boys due to recent play, but history says that Ken will have at least one and perhaps two high scores. At seven he is the heavy favorite, but past meltdowns cannot be ignored. Only he and Tom have gone longer without winning a sweater than the Doctor, although Ken did win one in the early days; against much weaker fields. Like the Doctor Ken’s recent scores indicate he may have an even lower Ghin by the trip, due to recent rounds at P.D. Ken is improved but these scores are not in sweater competition. Getting a half stroke from Tom is a significant reduction and Ken giving a half stroke to the Doctor will get his attention.

DOCTOR
SEVEN and ONE HALF  Ghin 9/13/07 6.97
Likely handicap 7

Five recent scores at Lakeshore including a two under par 69 dropped the Doctor’s Ghin to 6.9. Still nearly two higher than Tom and Ken but significantly less than the Madsen’s whom originally he considered as equals. The Doctor received 7.5 in Arizona and was out of the money, even with Qunitero not factored in. His Minnesota average of 83 plus suggests that he need at last as many as he received in Arizona.

The Doctor’s average scores continue to rise; the other golfers continue to improve. Pride commeth before a fall and the Doctor has fallen from being a contender to shooting scores in the hundreds. Once willing to bet that he would not have a triple bogey on the trip, he now is likely to have one and a few doubles nearly every round. The Greek who plays the most golf with the Doctor has concluded that it is a mental block and there are no amount of strokes that would allow the Doctor to win. While with Tom it is the desire to win the Sweater that has overwhelmed him, with the Doctor it is the environment with the Brethren and the Camaraderie that is his undoing. The Doctor’s believes his handicap can’t be based upon the low players if they average near 75 they will win the sweater or the high handicaps who may avoid a terrible round, for example Tinley averaging less than ninety when he won. The Doctor is currently an 8.7 at _Prairie Dunes recorded the most rounds this year of the group. This is three more than the Colonel’s GHIN but Ken ‘s scores except for low rounds in Minnesota have not been shot with the group. The Doctor believes he needs a half stroke a round from Ken. And the one stroke a round that Tom concedes the Doctor needs from him especially in Minnesota. The 7.0 is right at his Ghin index. It is less than the difference in Ghin’s with Tom. Doctor will contend early and falter down the stretch, as is his recent track record.

KRIS
EIGHT and ONE HALF  Ghin 9/13/07 7.9 or 8.3
Likely handicap 8

The Doctor believes that Kris is now better than him but is voting Kris one more due more to history and the fact that John Nelson will remain a threat to Kris and less would not be fair in their match up. The 8.5 is close to what Kris received last year in Minnesota where he did not finish in the money in the Calcutta, and his performance in Arizona should be ignored due to his focus on legal matters. As the sweater trip approaches, Kris has been shooting lights out at Dodge, but the Doctor played with him at Shoreline where they were whipped by Tinley, Riley and Billy Jake and Madsen shooting near ninety while choking a three footer on the last hole.

Kris is better than his brother and the last repeat champion but it has been five years since he won in Minnesota when he was voted nearly three strokes more. He has vastly improved, but he still is not better than Junior or Ken. If he can stay with in one of the Doctor and the Doctor doesn’t choke Kris deserves a third sweater.

FRITZ
NINE  Ghin 9/13/07 10.3
Likely handicap 11 chance 12

Fritz is not as good as Kris. However, he did win the sweater in Arizona. Where he shot subpar for one nine, against the Doctor. He has shot lower scores this year at Dodge than the Doctor, and early in the summer shot extraordinary golf beating the Doctor by six stokes at Council Bluffs Country Club. Kirk his it far and long and with his new clubs is hitting his irons pure. His putting is more consistent than in the past, but he still shoots many rounds in the middle to high eighties. His handicap is currently nearly the same as John’s but it will be coming down. Kris believes he is one to two strokes better a round than Fritz and this may be true, but Fritz has contended in Arizona twice in the last five years and is usually in the middle of the pack in Minnesota. He has been voted the following handclaps in Minnesota since 2002: 9, 9, 9, 9, and last year I do not have the handicap but I believe I recommended 8,5 and he was voted close to 9. Recent scores dropped his Ghin, however he has not filed anything in the past three weeks.

At a recent luncheon with the Doctor where Kirk graciously bought he pointed out how much better Kris played up North, and how although Fritz knew he would be reduced because of his winning the sweater he should still get strokes from the Colonel, myself and especially Kris. However, I believe under no circumstance should Fritz be considered double digits, when compared to John Nelson, and even if he was a 10, he must be reduced by at least one for his winning the sweater. Kirk is the weaker Madsen’s at nine but this handicap is based upon not only his game, but also having gotten control of his temper, and his performance in Arizona and he will be getting two from Ken. The Doctor recommends that he get the same 9 strokes recommended by the Doctor in the past. This would be his Ghin index difference with Ward and give him two and one half against Tom that is more than he received in Arizona where he won. By the way the lunch was great.

JOHN
ELEVEN and ONE HALF  Ghin 9/13/07 11.9
Likely handicap 13

Welcome back John. We all know missing the last two sweater trips was difficult and returning to Minnesota where you won your sweater and your home course in the rotation should be inspiration enough. However, the Doctor knows that John no longer needs inspiration he has the game to back an eleven. For most of the summer John has been beating Kris. He has played all over the country making Mike Gallner seem like a homebody. Recent trips to west and Sutton bay have raised his handicap on difficult course

John has improved his Ghin index by over five strokes since where it was at the time of the Arizona trip. Frankly the Doctor was concerned that while John is a fierce competitor he might not be up to the pressure as the Doctor’s guest in the Charles Craig Classic. While they were lucky to get to the shootout, they did get to the final hole against two of the top players from Kansas City for the past thirty years. After both teams made par, we lost in a playoff where John’s putt finished only a few inches further from the hole. Sadly this was not Mr. Nelson’s fault but a bad read by the Doctor, who caught up in the moment gave John the Doctor’s more aggressive line playing less break than normal. This near victory along with the reopening of Omaha Country Club has resulted in John’s best golf since his early Lakeshore Days. The Doctor to his regret has not played much with John this summer, but will not be foolish again to question his game. John should probably get three from Kris and the Doctor, but Headwaters and his return suggest caution giving him too many strokes.

CHRIS
THIRTEEN and ONE HALF  Ghin 9/13/07 13.1
Likely handicap 14 possibly 15

Were it not for Tom’s improved play, Ken’s improvement in consistency and John’s dramatic drop in his handicap, the Doctor would be complaining about all the times Chris has beaten him in partner’s game this year. For the first time ever, the Doctor is not suggesting that Tins give strokes to John but instead believes that John should give Tins one a side. This is despite the fact that Chris can find his ball in Minnesota, has won in Minnesota, and has recently shown stretches where he has gotten his drive under control.

Tins will never quit and is a competitor. He has played himself into favorable pairings that help him keep his concentration and can avoid the high numbers from lost balls in Arizona. He has not had the recent opportunity to play Detroit Lakes or Headwaters. As the early favorite to be the Doctor’s partner in next year’s Charles Craig Classic, the Doctor believes that Chris can keep his scores below ninety and that will make him competitive against the entire field. Doctor may have Tins a little low. The club did not report his scores in the club championship for some reason however his averages would have still kept him in this range.

DOUG (Bulldog)
FIFTEEN  Ghin 9/13/07 13.0
Likely handicap 15

Doug appears to only be able to shoot his best rounds against the Doctor breaking eighty at Dodge for the first time with the group by shooting a 78, with Doctor as his opponent. Doug also played well against the Doctor in Florida, but this handicap must be against the entire filed and Doug won’t be able to beat up on the Doctor each match. Doug’s index suggests that Doug should at most be a 14 that should arguably be only twelve then against Ward, Jeff and Kip. However, Doug needs strokes from Chris Tinley, and only Pete and the Doug can reach the high numbers.

While this will not be his rookie trip Doug has not played Detroit Lakes or Headwaters and his experience at Perham was with the Doctor for nine holes and does not include the third nine. Since Doug’s high numbers come from not keeping the ball in play or at least on the course. all three of these courses could the first time present significant obstacles Fifteen is correct, compared to those at 7 to 8.5 and. to John and Pete. If Doug keeps it in play 12 could be too much if not 18 is far too few. Doctor chooses the happy median of fifteen with Tins giving Doug less than one a side.

PETE
TWENTY  Ghin 9/13/07 19.1
Likely handicap 21

Like John, Pete has gone to Pebble Beach this summer. He also was the Doctor’s guest in a member guest at Council Bluffs Country Club, and had the Doctor as his guest in the member guest at Bent Tree. At Doctor’s insistence Pete learned how to post all his scores resulting in his handicap rise from 14 to over twenty. Even with these high numbers the team finished next to the last at Bent Tree and did not win their flight at Lakeshore. One highlight was the winners of their flight; Mike Winter and Reilly lost their only match to Pete and the Doctor who shot his only sub par round of the year a 35. Pete has quit golf at least twenty times this summer, and is no certainty to be on the trip to Minnesota until he crosses the border at Fargo. He will no longer go to Arizona, and only the chance to see Roger and Shirley; keeps him going North. He has volunteered to room with the Doctor so it is clear he has little interest in winning another sweater, but may show up the last day if still in the Calcutta. He is most excited about the championship dinner being at Pizza King, where we can expect an increase in prices unless he wins. Having had him as his partner twice at twenty, the Doctor will not vote him any less or more strokes as his opponent although he may need them. Pete hasn’t reported a score for two months so his California scores are not in, nor his recent outings at Bent Tree Shoreline or Dodge.

CONCLUSION

This should be a wide-open field, many are playing well and a few have shown late signs of form. Of the low handicaps Ward and Tom still are the favorites, in the middle group Ken and Kris, while in the over ten handicaps, John is the horse to beat. Perhaps it will come down to the two boys from Pebble Beach. John and Pete to fight over the SWEATER!